Muslim Brotherhood (MB) candidate Mohammed Morsi was declared Egypt's first democratically elected civilian president after the fall of Hosni Mubarak nearly 17 months ago. According to the Special Presidential Election Commission, Morsi won approximately 52 percent of the vote, while Ahmed Shafiq, the preferred candidate of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and former Mubarak-era prime minister, earned 48 percent. The results will not change the fact that the SCAF will continue to dominate Egyptian politics for a variety of reasons.
First, the council prevented the MB from dominating both the legislative and executive branches of government by dissolving the parliament after the MB won the most seats of any group in the late 2011/early 2012 parliamentary elections. Second, the SCAF issued a fresh constitutional declaration giving itself sweeping legislative and security powers as well as major oversight over the process to draft a new constitution. Third, the SCAF and the MB have been in continuous negotiations throughout the transition process, resulting in a bargain whereby the MB will work within the parameters laid out by the military in exchange for a share of the power.
In addition to having his powers circumscribed by the military, Morsi will not be a full term president because fresh parliamentary elections will be held after the formation of a new constitution, a process that will be heavily influenced by the military. The MB's victory in the presidential elections thus shows that the SCAF will continue to determine the scope and pace of the post-Mubarak transition toward multiparty politics. Morsi's win falls in line with Stratfor's forecast that the military and the MB would reach an agreement whereby the SCAF would concede the presidency. For its part, the MB would be left with little choice but to cede primary authority to the military in drafting the constitution, which will ultimately decide the balance of power among the military, parliament and presidency.