ASSESSMENTS

El Nino: An Inconsistent Geopolitical Agent

Sep 10, 2015 | 09:30 GMT

An image taken by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Jason-2 satellite on Aug. 20 shows sea surface height, which can be used to calculate how much heat is stored in the ocean below.
An image taken by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Jason-2 satellite on Aug. 20 shows sea surface height, which can be used to calculate how much heat is stored in the ocean below.

(NASA)

Forecast Bullets

  • Strong El Nino conditions are expected to remain through 2015 and possibly several months into 2016, with some regions experiencing drought while others could receive much-needed rain.
  • Higher inflation has been attributed to El Nino events and could occur, though the increase would be relatively small (less than 1 percent) and could benefit some countries more than others.
  • El Nino effects on inflation and commodity prices will be short term, but when added with existing structural issues, it could affect policies in certain countries.

The El Nino weather pattern only increases the probability of certain meteorological events; it does not guarantee them. Nevertheless, data from past El Nino events indicates what the probable weather patterns will be during future episodes and how they are likely to affect the global economy....

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