The Endgame to Afghanistan's Long War Takes Shape
Jan 30, 2019 | 15:19 GMT
(FAROOQ NAEEM/AFP/Getty Images)
- Though the speed and scale of its drawdown have yet to be determined, the United States will push to withdraw from Afghanistan as it shifts its focus to its strategic competition with China and Russia.
- Because a U.S. withdrawal is so critically important to the Taliban, they will most likely commit to a tentative cease-fire agreement, yet their desire to drive a hard bargain could complicate the larger peace negotiation process.
- Pakistan will encourage an orderly and measured U.S. drawdown to prevent a security vacuum from emerging on its western flank.
- At the same time, Islamabad will push for any post-conflict government in Kabul to include strong Taliban representation.