ASSESSMENTS

An Escalation in Tripoli Pushes Libya to the Brink of Open War

Apr 16, 2019 | 10:30 GMT

The Libyan National Army's recent ambush on the country's capital has likely shattered the possibility of peace talks any time soon.

The latest round of fighting between Libya's Government of National Accord and the Libyan National Army near Tripoli has killed 121 people as of April 14, 2019.

(MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • By launching a military offensive on Tripoli, Khalifa Hifter has made it clear that he views himself as the sole solution to Libya's political crisis, and that any negotiations to weaken his control of the Libyan National Army (LNA) are unacceptable.
  • Hifter's staunch commitment to these tenets will continue to prove problematic for outside efforts to unify Libya's competing governments, and will make it difficult for him to agree to a cease-fire. 
  • France, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia will continue to support Hifter militarily and politically — not wanting to lose their investments in him as a leader over the past five years. 
  • The offensive has also likely ended the possibility of any political negotiations between the LNA and the Government of National Accord for the time being by hardening Western opposition to Hifter. 

Libya is, once again, teetering on the edge of full-scale civil war. On April 4, Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter and his Libyan National Army (LNA) launched an offensive against Tripoli, likely as a ploy to gain an unassailable position before his rivals with the Government of National Accord (GNA) could respond. But it appears Hifter may have underestimated his enemy, as his attack was quickly met with a fierce and unified resistance. The best case scenario at present for the prevention of further escalation and the resurgence of the Islamic State is a cease-fire between Hifter's LNA and the pro-GNA militias. Otherwise, the conflict in Tripoli will likely remain a stalemate as the civil war risks spreading to other parts of the country. But getting Hifter to accept a cease-fire -- even one backed by his loyal foreign supporters -- will be easier said than done, given the doctrine he...

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