Albania and Serbia have a complex relationship because of ethnic tension and overlapping territorial aspirations. Complicating things further, Albania supported Kosovo's 2008 unilateral declaration of independence, while Serbia continues to resist its international recognition. Friction between Serbia and Albania will persist, but Albania's claims over Kosovo will remain rhetorical, and a more serious escalation is unlikely.
Tension between Albania and Serbia is not new. The resurrection of irredentist claims has long been a common feature of politics in the Western Balkans. In a region with such a complex geographic and ethnic landscape, where official borders do not match linguistic or religious ones, most countries hold centuries-old grudges and make territorial claims on others. This situation has often led to violence, with the wars of the 1990s as the most recent example.
The situation of Albanian minorities in the former Yugoslavia and later in Serbia has been an enduring source of conflict between Tirana, the capital of Albania, and Belgrade. Ethnic Albanians account for 90 percent of the population of Kosovo, which has traditionally been under Serbian control and whose political status is particularly contentious. In the 1990s, Tirana called on the international community to intercede and stop the ethnic cleansing of Albanians in the collapsing Yugoslavia. At the same time, Belgrade accused Tirana of supporting separatist groups in Kosovo. The bilateral relationship became strained again in 2008, when Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia. Albania subsequently recognized Kosovo's independence, a move that irritated Serbia's leadership.
Albania's relations with Kosovo could generate problems in the future. Albania is an ethnically homogeneous country, particularly when compared with neighboring Macedonia or Bosnia-Herzegovina. Though Albania is familiar with domestic political instability, ethnic-fueled tensions are rare. But volatility in Kosovo poses a risk to Albania for several reasons. First, the conflict between ethnic Albanians and ethnic Serbians in Kosovo creates friction between Tirana and other regional players, most notably Serbia. Second, poor living conditions in Kosovo will force Albania to absorb increasing numbers of unemployed Kosovars over the long term. According to World Bank data, over 14 percent of Albanians live below the poverty line, creating the conditions for potential social unrest in Albania.
