ASSESSMENTS

In Europe, COVID-19 Extends the Tenure of Fragile Governments

undefined and Director of Analysis at RANE
Adriano Bosoni
Director of Analysis at RANE, Stratfor

Mar 30, 2020 | 17:21 GMT

An illustration of a microscope image of the new coronavirus and a surgical mask overlaying a 100 euro banknote.

A surgical mask and microscopic images of the new coronavirus overlay a 100 euro banknote. As it tears EU economies apart, the COVID-19 pandemic is also helping unite the bloc's formerly fragmented governments.

(Shutterstock/Kenan Stocks)

Highlights

  • The coronavirus pandemic in Europe has helped stabilize several governments that were in politically fragile situations before the outbreak.
  • But this stability will be short-lived as systemic issues will re-emerge as soon as the health crisis is resolved. 
  • Some of the measures that governments are taking to stimulate the economy will lead to deeper deficits and higher debt levels in the eurozone.
  • This suggests Europe’s economic problems — and preexisting political woes — will last long beyond the current crisis. 

The coronavirus outbreak is ravaging Europe’s economy by simultaneously bringing production, consumption, investment and trade to a near halt. But the pandemic is also helping freeze the Continent's political crises by forcing governments to unite against the escalating existential threat. Europe's political tumult, however, will return once the immediate contagion has abated. And several countries, in particular, will see a combination of financial and legislative fragility that will limit their ability to deal with the enduring economic repercussions.  ...

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