ASSESSMENTS

Is Europe on the Cusp of Another Migration Crisis?

undefined and Director of Analysis at RANE
Adriano Bosoni
Director of Analysis at RANE, Stratfor
undefined and Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE
Emily Hawthorne
Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE

Mar 6, 2020 | 19:28 GMT

A photo of refugees and migrants waiting in line to receive blankets and food near the Greek border in Edirne, Turkey, on March 5, 2020.

Refugees and migrants wait in line to receive blankets and food near the Greek border in Edirne, Turkey, on March 5, 2020. Thousands have flocked to the border since the Turkish government announced it would allow migrants to cross into Europe on March 1.

(CHRIS MCGRATH/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • There is a high chance that a migration crisis in 2020 results in a situation similar to the one that unfolded in 2015, with Greece again bearing most of the weight of the migration influx.
  • But unlike five years ago, Germany will be more willing to protect the European Union's external border and less interested in accepting a large number of migrants.
  • Turkey will also be more willing to weaponize the country's landmark migrant agreement with the European Union to secure additional diplomatic and financial help from the bloc.

On March 1, Turkey announced it would no longer enforce an agreement with the European Union to prevent migrants from entering the Continental bloc. Since then, tens of thousands of migrants have been trying to enter Greece from Turkey, fueling fears of another looming migration crisis in Europe. In response, the Greek government has increased security at its borders and announced that no asylum requests would be accepted for a month -- though it's far from certain whether Greece will be able to contain a continued flood of migrants at its doorstep. Unless Turkey changes its position in the coming weeks, there's a good chance Greece's sea and land borders will once again become the hottest access point for Europe-bound migrants. But unlike the crisis in 2015, Athens will find even fewer EU countries willing to help lift the load this time around....

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