The contest between nationalism and pan-Europeanism has existed at the core of the European Union since it was first formed in Rome in 1957. The union is an attempt to create a transnational entity out of a group of nation-states defined by different economies and political traditions, divided by a history of conflict. To unify these states, the European Union promised peace and economic prosperity. The resulting organization was a hybrid between a unified pan-European entity and a community of sovereign nation-states. In the ensuing decades, these competing visions have continued to clash, with nationalism slowing the integration process on several occasions.
In 2005, the French and Dutch rejections of the European Constitution brought the slow progress toward integration to a halt. The opposition stemmed primarily from the symbolic nature of the document — the public considered the term "constitution" to indicate an attempt to centralize power into a European state at the expense of national sovereignty. In 2007, most member states adopted the Lisbon Treaty, which replicated the text of the European Constitution line by line. In most member states, including the Netherlands and France, parliaments — not popular votes — ratified the treaty. Many deemed the treaty a backdoor deal between national and EU leaders, feeding the public's anti-EU sentiment.
Shortly after the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, Europe entered an economic crisis that completely derailed integration. With most EU member states in recession and unemployment rising, national governments became divided over economic policy. They have sorted into two camps: those who see crisis as the best time for painful reforms and those who think stimulus should precede reforms. The economic downturn also revealed key problems caused by integration, most notably that the Economic and Monetary Union had made it impossible for member states to adjust their individual monetary policies.
The crisis created opportunities for Euroskeptic parties and the local politicians who supported them. In May 2014, these parties won elections in several member states, including France and the United Kingdom. However, the anti-EU push will provoke a reaction. Brussels, Berlin and other pro-European governments will probably try to establish an inner club of member states eager to promote integration. This division could lead to two tracks for EU membership, with some full members becoming entirely involved in the European Union while others become associate members that benefit from the free trade zone but have no influence on policymaking. The question of the French-German alliance will be at the center of this reshaping process. France could be tempted to bring back the idea of a Mediterranean Union, leaving Germany in an alliance with Northern Europe.
