Voters in the Netherlands will go to the polls March 15. In recent years, elections in many European countries have shown that popular support for mainstream political parties is waning as anti-system and Euroskeptic forces are gaining popularity. The Netherlands, one of the wealthiest countries in Europe, is part of the trend.
The Dutch parliament is composed of numerous parties, and coalitions are often needed to form governments. According to opinion polls, in the coming election, the ruling People's Party for Freedom and Democracy of Prime Minister Mark Rutte would win from 23 to 28 of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament. This would be a significant decline from the 41 seats it won in the general election of 2012. Similarly, the Labor Party would win 10 to 12 seats, well below the 38 seats it obtained in the last election.
In the meantime, polls suggest that the parliamentary representation of the Euroskeptic Party of Freedom would double, reaching between 29 and 35 seats (in 2012, it won only 15 seats). That party and its leader, Geert Wilders, want the Netherlands to leave the European Union (a so-called Nexit) and to reintroduce the guilder as its national currency. The party has a strong anti-immigration and anti-Islam agenda, presenting itself as a protector of Dutch culture and identity.
But even if the Party of Freedom performs strongly in the election, it would struggle to enter the government. Most mainstream Dutch political parties refuse to cooperate with Wilders and have said they will exclude the Party of Freedom from the negotiations to form a government. The Party of Freedom is the only major party advocating a Nexit; the rest of the political establishment remains committed to the Netherlands' EU membership and its role as the heart of the process of European integration.
The coming Dutch election will most likely result in a government that calls for EU reform instead of the abolishment of the bloc. However, election results will still present significant challenges for the Netherlands. A stronger-than-expected performance by the Party of Freedom would increase its leverage during the negotiations to form a government. Even if Wilders does not become prime minister, his party could become indispensable in providing parliamentary support to a minority government led by moderate forces. Should Wilders increase his influence over the political process, the Netherlands would move to increasingly Euroskeptic positions.
