ASSESSMENTS

In Face of Supreme Leader's Surgery, Tehran Considers a Post-Khamenei Iran

Sep 10, 2014 | 09:15 GMT

Considering A Post-Khamenei Iran
An Iranian protester holds a photo of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a demonstration to mark the 34th anniversary of the 1979 U.S. Embassy takeover Nov. 4, 2013, in Tehran.

(Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Summary

Iranian state media have been making a conscious effort to reassure the public that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is recovering well after prostate surgery. However, the surgery has raised questions about Khamenei's health and how his potential incapacitation would affect the clerical regime or alter the nature of the Islamic republic. Moreover, it would create an opening for both the pragmatic conservative government and its hardline opponents and thus aggravate the ongoing power struggle in Tehran.

A change in clerical leadership would exacerbate the struggle between the pragmatic government and hardline opposition....

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