ASSESSMENTS

The Factors That Could Push the U.S. and Iran to War

Jun 12, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

An armed Iranian speedboat in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, 2019.

An armed Iranian speedboat in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30. A war between the United States and Iran would have major global economic and energy consequences.

(ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Despite hard-line factions in both Iran and the United States that would like to pursue confrontation, both countries will remain keen to avoid a major war with each other.
Nevertheless, the risk of miscalculation and escalation will remain high, particularly given Iran's force dispositions and conflict strategy, as both countries ramp up their military preparations.
The absence of meaningful channels of communication will also reduce the ability of both countries to de-escalate tensions after an accident or initial confrontation.

The United States is sending additional forces to the Persian Gulf as Iran prepares and mobilizes its army; together, the countries' actions are significantly increasing the possibility of war. Compounding the risk is a faction within the White House, epitomized by hawkish national security adviser John Bolton, that is more eager than others in the administration to start a conflict with Iran. Bolton, naturally, has ideological counterparts in Iran, especially in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who are also spoiling for a fight. But as leaders in Washington and Tehran have emphasized, the two countries remain wary of a costly war against each other. But caution aside, a broader conflict is not beyond the realm of possibility, what with the countries' mutual hostility and mistrust, lack of communication channels to quickly resolve a conflict, as well as the setup of Iran's forces -- which have a major incentive to strike...

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