On the April 2 anniversary of the invasion of the Falkland Islands, the relationship between Argentina and the United Kingdom is predictably tense again. For the next several years, the United Kingdom's capability to respond to potential threats to the Falklands will be limited by its lack of deployable aircraft carriers. Consequently, U.K. military planners will have to consider defensive contingencies. Military posturing between Argentina and the United Kingdom will increase ahead of the 2020 deployment of the Royal Navy's new Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers, which will increase the United Kingdom's capacity to project power and to respond to threats. Still, Argentina's economic challenges and the British military's ability to mount a significant response will prevent any actual conflict from occurring over the islands in the next five years.
The Falkland Islands have long been a point of contention between Argentina and the United Kingdom, and Buenos Aires has maintained its claim to the so-called Malvinas since its failed war to take the islands by force in 1982. Both governments can use the dispute for political purposes, especially ahead of U.K. general elections in May and Argentine general elections in October. Buenos Aires in particular has used the issue to rally nationalist sentiment, taking symbolic actions — such as introducing a new 50-peso bill emblazoned with the image of the islands — to keep the claim alive in the public's mind. For years, Argentina pursued diplomatic efforts at the United Nations to open talks on the status of the islands, lodging protests with the U.N. Special Committee on Decolonization.
Though Argentina's claim on the islands has been peaceful in the wake of the failed 1982 campaign, Argentina's possible acquisition of new aircraft could alter the dynamic in the minds of U.K. military strategists. Argentina signed defense agreements with China in February for joint development of JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft and reportedly sent an air force delegation to China in March with plans to buy dozens of the planes. Argentina was also rumored to have pursued leasing 12 Sukhoi Su-24 from Russia. On March 27, Russia denied having such talks but said it would be ready to do so.
In response, the United Kingdom has announced an increase to its defensive capabilities on the islands. British Minister of Defense Michael Fallon reported to Parliament last week that the United Kingdom will deploy two Chinook helicopters in 2016, upgrade the command facility at Mount Pleasant and begin work on new surface-to-air missile systems to replace the existing Rapier batteries. The United Kingdom is expected to allocate more than $250 million to upgrades in Falklands defense over the next 10 years.
Although Argentina will continue to claim the Falkland Islands, it is unlikely to intervene militarily. Tensions will rise periodically, and the United Kingdom could increase its military presence to ward off any threat. However, the economic and political costs of war for Argentina will restrain military action in the near future.
