Filling the Wheat Gap After Russia's Export Duty

Moscow plans to implement an export duty on Russian wheat Feb. 1. The measure, which is meant to ensure wheat supplies to the domestic market in light of the declining ruble, initially caused uncertainty in global markets. However, given other market forces, the impact of the Russian export duty is expected to be minimal. Other suppliers, primarily European, should be able to make up the deficit without substantial disruptions in supply as well as moderate prices. But should the disruption in supply be larger than expected or should prices rise substantially, it will be wheat importing countries in the Middle East and North Africa, many of them oil producers already hurting from the decline in oil prices, that could face problems.