Five years is a long time for a politician, particularly an elected one. But it is a blip for a nation-state like Turkey, where progress is measured in decades. After winning reelection on May 28, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now faces the task of making his next (and potentially last) term -- which ends in 2028 -- a defining chapter in Turkey's ongoing transformation into an independent great power. To cement his legacy over the next five years, Erdogan may be tempted to follow in the footsteps of countries like Israel, India and Russia, which have all been accused to varying degrees of forcibly expanding their influence and power by violating the post-war norm of territorial integrity. This could see him conduct aggressive naval drills in a push to expand Turkey's maritime claims, install puppet republics along Turkey's border with Syria, or even attempt to unilaterally annex Cyprus. ...
