Forecasting Japan: The Failure of Reform

Editor's Note: Since the end of the Cold War, the Pacific Rim has seen China rise and Japan stagnate. However, Japan is approaching an epochal shift that will enable it to challenge the current order. This analysis is the third in a four-part a series that forecasts the nature of that shift and the future of Japan. Part two examined the rise of China and its impact on Japan. 

As the strategic situation in the Pacific changes, Japan will be forced to adapt. Tokyo will need to pull the Japanese economy out of stagnation and cultivate a dynamic set of new industries while luring back businesses that have gone overseas. Current Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has an ambitious plan to do just that – but the strategy has so far foundered, and in the long term it will likely fail.