France's Elections: The Stakes in Paris and Beyond

The first round of France's 2012 presidential election — the only major election in Western Europe this year and the outcome of which could affect the entire Continent — will begin April 22. Polls indicate that Socialist Party candidate Francois Hollande and incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy likely will compete in the second round, scheduled for May 6, because neither candidate will secure the majority needed to win the presidency in the first round. 

Whoever wins will have to steer France through numerous political and economic crises and, more important, questions regarding France's identity in relation to Germany and Europe. The election outcome will not determine France's course but rather the time frame for an eventual dispute with Germany. That factor will be the most significant for the future of the European Union, as it will determine the status of Europe's core alliance between France and Germany.