ASSESSMENTS

France's Post-Election Economic Outlook

Jun 25, 2024 | 19:10 GMT

A man walks past campaign posters for France's upcoming legislative elections in Parempuyre, southwestern France, on June 25, 2024.
A person walks past campaign posters for France's upcoming legislative elections in Parempuyre, southwestern France, on June 25, 2024.

(PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP via Getty Images)

France's uncertain economic and political outlook and increasing financial constraints will weaken the country's influence on EU economic policy issues, as well as its ability and willingness to provide military and financial support to Ukraine. Following the poor performance of his centrist alliance in the June EU parliament elections, French President Emmanuel Macron called snap parliamentary elections for June 30 and July 7. Polls suggest that the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen will emerge as the largest political force in the National Assembly, but fall short of securing an absolute majority. If enough center-right lawmakers end up supporting the RN, the next prime minister will hail from the RN, with party leader Jordan Bardella being the most likely pick for the position. Centrist, pro-European President Macron will then govern France together with a eurosceptic, far-right prime minister under an arrangement known as cohabitation. If, alternatively, the left-wing...

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