The risk of protest and terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir will increase in the run-up to regional elections, and an eventual mass-casualty attack would risk triggering a military escalation between India and Pakistan. On Dec. 11, 2023, India's Supreme Court upheld Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's August 2019 presidential orders that abrogated Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution -- which, respectively, had formerly granted constitutional autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir and special rights to its permanent residents. While the ruling was seen as a victory for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Supreme Court also instructed India's Electoral Commission to convene fresh assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir by Sept. 30, 2024, which will be the province's first since the abrogation of Article 370. These elections are thus set to be historically significant, and the Indian government's ability to ensure they run smoothly would significantly strengthen...
