ASSESSMENTS

The Future of OPEC

Dec 4, 2013 | 11:33 GMT

Pump jacks in the Kurdish town of Derik, on the border with Turkey and Iraq, Nov. 25.
Pump jacks in the Kurdish town of Derik, on the border with Turkey and Iraq, Nov. 25.

(ACHILLEAS ZAVALLIS/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

The prospect of revitalized oil production in Iraq and Iran may add to tensions between those two countries and Saudi Arabia over production quotas. On Dec. 4, representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna to discuss a number of topics. OPEC is facing two challenges. First, OPEC's historically biggest consumer — the United States — is rapidly increasing its own domestic production. At the same time, OPEC must deal with plans to expand oil production envisioned both by Iraq and Iran, which could lead to lower prices than the cartel desires. Ultimately, however, emerging markets in Asia will set global demand, and their energy thirst will determine the scale of the problem OPEC faces.

The oil cartel will face pressure from within through boosted Iranian and Iraqi production and from outside through growing U.S. energy exports....

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