Editor's Note: The following excerpt was taken from a longer analysis published Sept. 2. The information is current up to that point only. Events on the streets in Gabon continue to rapidly unfold.
After Gabonese officials announced that President Ali Bongo Ondimba had narrowly won another term in office, the uneasy calm that had settled over the Central African state as its citizens awaited the outcome of the Aug. 27 presidential election was shattered. Riots immediately broke out across the country. Protesters flooded the streets of Libreville and several other major cities to denounce the ruling, which is widely perceived to be the result of electoral fraud, and clashes between demonstrators and security forces were widespread. According to several media outlets, internet access was cut, and security personnel stormed the headquarters of the political opposition, resulting in at least one death and the arrest of several campaign leaders. The Gabonese National Assembly building was also damaged by fire, and total casualty estimates continue to vary widely.
Tension was mounting in Gabon for months as the country prepared for its highly anticipated presidential election, the first since 2009 and an unprecedented vote in many ways. For the first time in years, most of the opposition appeared to have rallied behind a single candidate: former government insider, diplomat and African Union Commission Chairman Jean Ping. In the days leading up to the race, several alternative candidates dropped out to throw their weight behind Ping, who was broadly considered the opposition's best chance to unseat Bongo.
Bongo's father, Omar Bongo, had consistently claimed wide leads over his opponents — when he was challenged at all — during his presidential tenure from 1967 to 2009. His son, however, has never managed to marshal the same level of support, either at home or abroad. After Bongo ran to succeed his father, who died in office, credible allegations of voter fraud marred his electoral victory. This year's election has had no shortage of controversy, either. Once again, numerous complaints of electoral fraud have been lodged, raising suspicions that have been compounded by the national electoral commission's decision to postpone its announcement of the results. As Ping's supporters work to overturn the Bongo government in the days ahead, their success will hinge on whether they can translate the outrage felt by Ping's constituents into a wider and more coherent movement. But social unrest or violence of any serious magnitude could also undermine Ping's legitimacy. If the protests his campaign stokes turn deadly, Bongo's government could easily pin the blame on the opposition, undermining its support at home and abroad. The line between demanding electoral transparency and inciting violence is thin, and it will become an increasingly difficult one to walk if Gabon's security environment continues to degrade in the weeks ahead.
