Gauging the Regional Fallout From Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Clashes

In the likely event of a limited Israeli incursion into Lebanon, Iran's regional proxies would likely provide mostly symbolic support for Hezbollah, reducing the risk of a regional war. However, should Israel undertake a broader campaign in Lebanon, the risk of a regional war -- potentially involving direct participation from the United States and Iran -- would increase. In recent weeks, U.S. political and military officials have cautioned Israel against starting an expansive military offensive against Lebanon's Iranian-backed militant and political group Hezbollah, warning that Iran and its proxies could be drawn into the conflict and that the United States would not be able to defend Israel. The U.S. warnings come amid Hezbollah and Israel's recent escalations at the Israel-Lebanon border and their leaders' increasingly aggressive rhetoric threatening war. ...