Gauging the Syrian Conflict

The ongoing conflict in Syria has surpassed expectations in terms of duration, intensity, casualties and population displacement. The tenacity of conventional forces loyal to President Bashar al Assad stalled the rebellion, which suffered from internal disputes and restricted logistics. The resulting stalemate has lasted for years, with neither side able to make decisive gains over the other. 

The regime holds a clear advantage in the coastal regions, in the city and province of Homs and in the greater Damascus area. The rebels have the advantage in the cities and provinces of Raqqah, Deir el-Zour and Daraa, while Aleppo remains in the balance. The war will continue unabated for at least the next year, though there are several variables and indicators that can be monitored, serving as early signals that either side is breaking the current stalemate in its favor.