Geopolitics and the Pitfalls of Provocation

Words matter in seeking to explain the actions of states and individuals and to divine the response that would best protect the national (or business or personal) interest. Complexities abound, and assertions based on minimal facts often must be made. Oversimplification is in fact frequently a necessary step to explain and understand the motivations -- whether compulsions or constraints -- of the various actors. That simplification, which accounts for complexity but peels away these layers to a core "truth," may not be entirely nuanced. But it does allow for more effective communication, and thus for building a more reasoned preparation or response....