GRAPHICS

The Global Copper Supply Needs Water

Jan 23, 2017 | 19:42 GMT

Stratfor's graphic of the day features a standout geopolitical map, chart, image or data visualization reflecting global and regional trends and events.

(Stratfor)

The Global Copper Supply Needs Water

When it comes to water in Chile, the mining industry may be the most important consumer. As the engine of the Chilean economy, its access to water is of the utmost concern to the government in Santiago, particularly as the sector grapples with low global commodities prices. But ensuring that the industry gets the water it needs to thrive is not easy. Measuring 4,270 kilometers (2,650 miles) from north to south, Chile experiences dramatic changes in its climate. The Atacama Desert, one of the driest places on Earth and where many of the country's copper mines are located, is located in the north and gradually fades into the country's temperate center, home to the majority of the Chilean population.

The copper industry in particular accounts for nearly half the country's total exports and almost one-third of the world's copper ore exports. When it suffers, so does the Chilean economy and the global copper supply. In 2016, stagnating copper prices began to take a toll on the Chilean copper sector, and they will likely continue to do the same in 2017. The oversaturated market is not expected to right itself until 2018 at the earliest.

In the meantime, Chile's copper mines — which include four of the five largest copper-producing sites in the world — have shifted their attention to cutting costs. Increasing water efficiency is one of the ways they hope to do that, especially as Chilean mines age and high-grade ores dwindle, forcing producers to exploit more water-intensive copper sulfides. Escondida, the world's largest mine, has already documented declines in ore grades and output over the past few years, while Codelco's El Teniente site was forced to put off its plans for expansion in early 2016. With no immediate relief in sight to low commodity prices, these firms will turn to technical solutions such as desalination technology to meet their operational needs for water. Though this technology might be pricy to implement in the short term, it will be necessary for the industry's long-term success amid sustained water stress. In fact, Chilean mines already use nine desalination plants and are planning to build two more. Desalination technology is expected to meet half the industry's water demand by 2026.

Worsening water stress seems almost certain to intensify the competition between urban residents and industrial and agricultural producers for Chilean water. In fact, signs of water stress have already begun to emerge: In 2015, a lengthy drought cut into the country's industrial output. As the situation becomes more dire, water may move to the forefront of political debate in Chile, dragging Santiago's water management policies into the spotlight with it.