ASSESSMENTS

For the Global Economy, a Sluggish 2020 Awaits

undefined and Stratfor Senior Analyst for Global Economics at RANE

Michael Monderer

Stratfor Senior Analyst for Global Economics at RANE, Stratfor

Jan 28, 2020 | 17:36 GMT

Environmentalists stage a protest against a World Economic Forum briefing meeting in Brussels on Jan. 27, 2020. Environmental changes and more could hamper global economic growth in 2020.

(DURSUN AYDEMIR/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Highlights

Global economic growth forecasts vary by a few tenths of a percentage point, but all show an anemic world economy with growth continuing this year — and probably in 2021 — at a level below its 40-year average.
Unpredictable economic policymaking and geopolitics sap business and investor confidence, further inhibiting global financing that is needed for growth.
While a global recession is unlikely, underlying financial and economic vulnerabilities are increasing, while a combination of shifting risk sentiment, unmet expectations or global confrontations could trigger a further slowdown.

For the global economy in the year ahead, challenges won’t be far away, with uncertainty from unpredictable policymaking on trade and investment, coupled with potential geopolitical disruptions and financial vulnerabilities, leading the way. And if these risks come to pass, the world's leading economies will be hard-pressed to respond in a coordinated, effective manner. Already, international cooperation is frayed as countries look increasingly inward, while slower growth with stagnant incomes could encourage even more economic nationalism than exists at present. Ultimately, the host of threats presents the world's policymakers with a tricky path toward safeguarding growth in the global economy....

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