ASSESSMENTS

The Global Impact of the Wuhan Coronavirus: 3 Scenarios

undefined and Stratfor Global Security Analyst at RANE
Ben West
Stratfor Global Security Analyst at RANE, Stratfor

Jan 29, 2020 | 17:30 GMT

People wear masks against a new coronavirus while walking in Macau on Jan. 28, 2020.

People wear masks against a new coronavirus while walking in Macau on Jan. 28, 2020.

(ANTHONY KWAN/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The severity of travel restrictions means that losses in the billions of dollars should be expected in China, Asia and the rest of the world.
  • Uncertainties around this new illness mean that authorities are assuming the worst until they can determine its true severity.
  • The death rate has been between 2 percent and 3 percent for the past week, a lower rate than both SARS and MERS.

As each new day brings updates on the spread of a new coronavirus from China, it is important to consider how the dispersal of the illness will play out in terms of its economic impact and its threat to public health. The following are Threat Lens' assessments of a best-case scenario, in which the response curbs the impact; a worst-case scenario, in which the infection rate continues and the death rate rises; and a most likely scenario, in which latency leads to global pandemic, but the death rate remains low....

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