On Security

The Global Jihadist Movement in 2020: The Threat Lens Forecast

Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor
Thomas Abi-Hanna
Global Security Analyst, Stratfor
Jan 28, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie speaks as a picture of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is seen during a press briefing Oct. 30, 2019, at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia.

U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie speaks as a picture of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is seen during a press briefing Oct. 30, 2019, at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia.

(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

As 2020 begins, the world is firmly in the post-Islamic State "caliphate" phase of the jihadist struggle. In 2019, the Islamic State lost the last sliver of the vast territory it had seized during its rapid rise in 2014. The group also lost its "caliph," Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in a U.S.-led raid in October 2019. The conditions that fueled its growth and propelled it to the forefront of the jihadist movement have clearly changed. But the threat hasn't disappeared.   The movement continues to be split generally between the Islamic State and al Qaeda. However, in practice, the jihadist ecosystem is really far more complex. ...

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