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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Is Filling Its Reservoir. What's Next?

Sim Tack
Senior Global Analyst , Stratfor
Jul 17, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A general view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam near Guba, Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019.

A general view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam near Guba, Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019.

(Photo by EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images)

The filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam's reservoir was not initiated by Ethiopian government action, but rather the alignment of the project's construction timeline and weather patterns. But while this will mitigate the near-term impact on the flow of the Nile Basin river system into Egypt, tensions between Addis Ababa and Cairo will likely again increase when water availability decreases after the rainy season. The concept of Addis Ababa restricting the Nile River flow to fill the dam's reservoir has become controversial due to Egyptian opposition and failure to reach a negotiated arrangement. But according to Ethiopia's water minister, recent heavy rains caused its water levels to grow rapidly without the government taking direct action. ...

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