ASSESSMENTS

As Growing Militancy in the Sahel Encroaches, Can Niger Hold Strong?

Jul 19, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

A desert scene in Niger. The desert nation has established stronger security measures than neighboring Mali, Libya and Chad -- all of which are facing fast-expanding jihadist movements. But militants have already started to prioritize efforts in Niger.

NIGER - CIRCA 2003: Air plateau, granite and volcanic massif, Niger. (Photo by DeAgostini/Getty Images)

(DeAgostini/Getty Images)

Highlights

As jihadist militants grow increasingly active in western Niger, the country will get pulled deeper into a regional emergency that broad security efforts have so far been unable to stem.
Niger maintains some resilience against jihadist activity thanks to its close cooperation with and hosting of foreign troops, but even these efforts have been unable to keep Islamic State and Ansarul Islam militants at bay.
Surrounded by conflict on all sides, militant groups may be drawn to the possibility of exercising direct control over the vast deserts of Niger, as well as merging battlefields across the Sahel.

Jihadist violence in Niger has been on the rise in the first half of 2019. Militants operating in Mali -- many of whom expanded their operations into eastern Burkina Faso in 2018 -- are now gradually forcing their way into the country. Attacks against population centers in rural border areas, as well as against local and foreign security forces, are occurring more regularly, illustrating the critical but precarious position Niger occupies in the broader Sahara-Sahel struggle for security. Niger's ability to hold firm against jihadists will not only determine its own future stability; it will shape the future of militancy in the broader region and either deny or provide foreign forces the opportunity to use Niger as a stable base in their counterterrorism fight....

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