ASSESSMENTS

The Growing Risk of an Israel-Hezbollah Escalation

Oct 10, 2023 | 22:36 GMT

Israeli forces launch artillery fire toward southern Lebanon from the border zone in northern Israel on Oct. 9, 2023, while Hezbollah denied involvement in clashes or ''any infiltration attempt'' into Israel.
Israeli forces launch artillery fire toward southern Lebanon from the border zone in northern Israel on Oct. 9, 2023, while Hezbollah denied involvement in clashes or ''any infiltration attempt'' into Israel.

(JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

The latest clashes between Israel and Hezbollah suggest that the constraints on direct confrontation are weakening, threatening to worsen political and economic conditions in Lebanon and significantly increase security threats in both countries. While Israel prepares for an expected ground incursion into the Gaza Strip, tensions are also rising in the north along the border with Lebanon. On Oct. 10, Palestinian militants (including Hamas) fired rockets from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Israeli military officials claim the militants fired 15 rockets and an anti-tank guided missile in the incident, adding that Israeli air defenses intercepted four of the incoming missiles, while the 11 remaining rockets landed in unpopulated areas of Israeli territory. Further incidents in northern Israel have occurred since the rocket barrage. In response to the attacks, Israeli tanks fired shells into Lebanon, destroying an observation post belonging to the large militant group Hezbollah, which has largely stayed out...

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