For Tehran, preserving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a 10-year agreement struck in 2015 between Iran and six other countries — the United Kingdom, the United States, Russia, Germany, France and China — is paramount to continuing its economic revival. The deal is intended to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons by limiting its production of fissile material, whether plutonium or uranium. Iran, in exchange for breaking down portions of its nuclear program and allowing monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure its compliance through regular inspections, receives relief from some of the economic sanctions against it.
The promise of relief from economic sanctions fueled President Hassan Rouhani's winning campaign in the 2013 election and guided him through negotiations over the JCPOA. Free of the secondary U.S. sanctions that inhibited companies from doing business with Iran, the country's economy has begun to recover after years of isolationist and populist policies under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The country's oil exports reached pre-sanctions levels in October. What's more, Iran's economic minister predicts that non-oil exports will hit $68 billion by the end of this budget year, up $10 billion from the previous year. Rouhani also insists that unemployment numbers are improving, and young Iranians are hopeful that they will begin to experience the benefits of the economic opening.
In light of these gains, Iran's leaders across the political spectrum are united in their commitment to protect Iran's economy by avoiding new sanctions or the reinstatement of suspended ones. Iran has largely observed the deal's nuclear regulations over the past year, according to the IAEA, and the promise of further economic recovery will compel continued compliance. Even the hard-line factions in Iran's political system want to preserve the JCPOA, though that will not keep them from spouting more of the same anti-U.S. rhetoric over the next four years. But after years of negotiation brought the JCPOA into being, the results of the U.S. presidential election may throw its future into question.
With Iran's next presidential election set for May, hard-line politicians will seize on any changes to the agreement to discredit their rivals in the current administration. But because of his role in negotiating the deal and his relatively pro-Western policies, Rouhani is the ideal politician to keep the agreement intact. The president's reforms, moreover, have made Iran more attractive to European investors, who want to keep working with the country, especially since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accepts the collaboration.
