The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will approach Syria's post-war political transition with caution and pragmatism, but over time Abu Dhabi will likely more aggressively seek to offset Turkish and Qatari influence, fueling Syrian factionalism and possibly presaging a new round of violence and intra-Gulf Arab tensions. The recent rapid collapse of Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria caught the Gulf Arab states off guard after they had taken significant steps toward diplomatic normalization with his government. None of the major Gulf Arab powers -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar -- had a role in Assad's sudden overthrow; instead, these countries were relegated to bystander status as Turkish-backed rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, rapidly led the campaign to oust Assad. Since then, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have remained cautious in their statements about post-Assad Syria. Unlike the United States...
