The standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be entering a new phase. Both sides have ramped up military exercises in recent months and have attended frequent meetings with Russian officials, fostering speculation in local media that a settlement may be forthcoming. Indeed, the countries' foreign ministers plan to meet on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York on Sept. 24-25. But this is not necessarily a watershed moment. A solution to the conflict would require a reworking of the web of political alliances and relationships in the Caucasus region, which could be a disruptive process. Still, tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine has dramatically changed the political situation in the region since 2014, and Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan might in fact be poised to make changes in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has always depended on three players: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia. Each has a different perspective. Armenia was the victor in the initial 1988-1994 territorial conflict, defeating Azerbaijan and occupying the area. As a result, Armenia wants to maintain de facto control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding regions. Azerbaijan, of course, wants to reverse this and regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh by diplomatic or even military means. Russia does not have a direct interest in the outcome of the conflict and thus has been able to manipulate it to advance its own interests in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as in the broader Caucasus region.
Until 2014, Moscow officially remained neutral and called for negotiations between the two sides. Informally, however, Russia backed Armenia, which had long been a loyal member of Russian political and security blocs in the former Soviet space and which allowed Russia to station 5,000 troops on its soil. Azerbaijan, by contrast, did not align itself with Russia. This status quo changed in early 2014 with Kiev's EuroMaidan uprising and the ensuing standoff between Russia and the West. Since 2014, Azerbaijan's military has been much more assertive on the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijani raids into the disputed territory have increased significantly, and the strength of Azerbaijan's position within the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has improved, while that of Armenia and Russia has weakened.
These ground changes have been accompanied by an unprecedented level of diplomatic activity. Russian and Azerbaijani political and military officials have met several times, and the visits have been followed by visits between Russian and Armenian officials. Reports have also emerged that Russia is planning to set up a military radar installation in Azerbaijan in 2017, although Moscow has denied these claims. The reports coincided with others from media in Armenia and Azerbaijan that serious talks are in the works. These unconfirmed reports suggest that parties are negotiating an arrangement that will soon change the status quo.
