ASSESSMENTS

Heeding the Lessons of the Euromaidan

Nov 1, 2017 | 09:00 GMT

Protesters in St. Petersburg participate in a series of protests across the country that opposition leader Alexei Navalny called in March.

Demonstrations of political dissent have become larger and more frequent in several Eurasian countries since the Euromaidan uprising shook Ukraine in 2014.

(OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Protests in Eurasia will become larger and more frequent thanks to rising expectations among the public, and especially the youth population, and technologies such as social media.
  • As demonstrations in the region intensify, protest movements will drive governments to change their domestic and foreign policies, and perhaps even their leadership.
  • States such as Ukraine, Russia and Belarus will take a more flexible approach to protests, while the countries of Central Asia will be more aggressive in containing the demonstrations, though the crackdowns could backfire and threaten their governments.

The Euromaidan revolution of 2014 was a watershed moment. What began as a small group of just a few dozen people advocating for Ukraine's accession to the European Union in Kiev's Independence Square quickly turned into a mass demonstration after security forces violently disbanded the protesters. A few months later, the uprising unseated President Viktor Yanukovich, setting the conflict in eastern Ukraine in motion and kicking off the enduring standoff between Russia and the West. The demonstrations set a new precedent for protest movements, not just in Ukraine but across Eurasia: They illustrated the risks of a heavy-handed, authoritarian reaction to dissent and proved what a determined public could achieve through protest, with the help of social media. For governments throughout the region, these were troubling revelations. But as protests have become larger and more frequent across the region in the years since, leaders in certain former Soviet republics have...

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