On April 18, the results of Nigeria's April 16 presidential election were announced, with incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, who hails from Bayelsa state in the Niger Delta, winning 57 percent of the popular vote. He will likely continue a number of policies that will keep the region's militants at bay so as to maintain the current power structure there. The Niger Delta region has what prompted the turn to violent militancy: a seat at the highest level of national power. The goals of the Niger Delta elite have thus been achieved, and Jonathan no longer needs militancy, which was used as a means to achieve national prominence. At present, the level of militant violence in the region is relatively low because Abuja has applied a combination of policies toward reining in Niger Delta militants. The main policy was a 2009 amnesty program in which those willing to demobilize, disarm and rehabilitate would be provided with monthly allowances and job-training programs. Militants not complying with these more peaceful overtures have been targeted by government security forces. Control over militants in the Niger Delta, particularly those belonging to the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) typically equate to control at the state level. The incumbent People's Democratic Party governors in Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers states have what were MEND's top commanders for their state under their influence, which all but ensures their electoral victory.
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Hierarchy of Niger Delta Politics
Apr 25, 2011 | 17:49 GMT
(Stratfor)