ASSESSMENTS

The High Stakes of Guyana's Elections

Feb 28, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

At stake in Guyana's national elections on March 2 will be control of the country's oil wealth that is only expected to grow over the decade.

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Highlights

The winner of Guyana's national elections will be able to use the country's burgeoning oil revenue to deepen patronage networks and try to cement its political future by building an unbeatable election-winning machine.
Guyana will become one of the world's top oil producers on a per capita basis, but the country's institutions are ill-equipped to handle the coming influx of oil revenue and increasing public investment that could create an economic imbalance hurting the private sector.
If the opposition wins the election, it will move quickly to renegotiate the country's oil contracts, except for the ExxonMobil deal that is already in production.
Venezuela's political crisis and the influx of oil revenue will give Guyana an opportunity to play a leadership role in the Caribbean — and become the top U.S. ally in the region.

Rarely do a country's elections matter as much for its future political balance of power as the March 2 ballot will for Guyana. The national balloting comes just 11 days after Guyana exported its first cargo of oil abroad, marking the beginning of a significant economic windfall to come as the country becomes the world's latest to join the oil production club. In the coming years, an oil boom will make Guyana one of the wealthiest countries in South America. The winner of the national elections will then have the chance to cement its political legacy through the kinds of economic patronage that come with increased wealth for the government....

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