ASSESSMENTS

Historic Elections Could Change the Face of Mexico

Jun 30, 2018 | 13:08 GMT

Presidential front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador greets supporters at a rally in Acapulco, Mexico, on June 25, 2018.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the Morena coalition candidate for president of Mexico, greets supporters during a campaign rally in Acapulco, Mexico, on June 25, 2018.

(ALFREDO ESTRELLA/AFP/Getty Image)

Highlights

  • The populist front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appears likely to win Mexico's presidential election on July 1, and his coalition will likely emerge from the congressional balloting in a much stronger position.
  • Lopez Obrador's agenda will depend on his control of Congress. Without at least a lower house majority, he will find it virtually impossible to make good on many campaign promises.
  • Whoever wins the presidency in the July 1 election can be expected to take the same general approach as the previous government to negotiating NAFTA with Canada and the United States. 

Historic elections that could change the political face of the country are fast approaching for Mexico. On July 1 -- for the first time since the founding of the modern Mexican state -- voters could elect a president outside of the two political parties that have held the post for more than 70 years. That candidate is the populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is running as the head of a coalition led by his National Regeneration Movement (Morena). For more than a year, Lopez Obrador has led in the polls, widening his lead as he gained popularity among undecided voters and supporters of the other major parties. Now, he seems poised to win the election with a third to half of the vote, and according to some polls, he could also gain a majority in both houses of Congress, where all 628 seats are up for election. Those majorities...

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