ASSESSMENTS

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Oct 18, 2024 | 14:00 GMT

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.
A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

(AMAURY FALT-BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)

Egypt's upcoming military deployment to Somalia will worsen tensions with Ethiopia, whose own frictions with Mogadishu raise the risk of clashes between Egyptian and Ethiopian forces in Somalia, leading to security vacuums that insurgents will likely exploit. On Oct. 10, Somalia, Egypt and Eritrea signed a deal to enhance their security cooperation. This was the latest sign of both Egypt's growing ties with Somalia and frictions with Ethiopia, following the August announcement that Egypt would contribute approximately 5,000 troops to the new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), set to begin on Jan. 1. This mission, with at least 10,000 personnel, will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), and will primarily focus on counterterrorism operations against the al Qaeda-affiliated group al Shabaab. This development came amid a growing diplomatic dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia, sparked by Ethiopia's controversial decision in January to sign a...

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