In a historic referendum, British citizens voted to leave the European Union on June 23, with 51.9 percent of voters choosing an exit. For the first time since its creation in the mid-1950s, the bloc will soon lose a member. The move is triggering a chain of events that will be felt around the globe, and it pushes both Britain and the European Union into a prolonged period of uncertainty that will fundamentally change the future of Europe.
From a political point of view, the referendum will lead to the resignation of British Prime Minister David Cameron, who campaigned heavily for his country to remain in the European Union. Considering the frictions among the ruling Conservatives (roughly half the party's lawmakers supported the "leave" camp), new elections before the end of the year in Britain cannot be ruled out. The results will also reignite independence demands in Scotland and, to a lesser degree, Northern Ireland.
The referendum is not legally binding, which means the British Parliament could technically decide not to respect its outcome — though this would mean ignoring a vote in which more than 33 million citizens participated. The evolution of political events in the United Kingdom will determine when negotiations between London and Brussels over the withdrawal begin. According to EU treaties, countries that want to leave the bloc have to formally notify Brussels of their intentions, but the exact moment of the announcement is decided by the country in question. Members of the "leave" camp have said that there is no need to make such an announcement immediately and that London and Brussels should be allowed some time to negotiate informally.
The formal declaration of the intention to leave will trigger a two-year negotiation period, during which the United Kingdom and the rest of the member states will hammer out the terms of the divorce and the framework of their new relationship. It is worth keeping in mind that while negotiations are taking place the United Kingdom will remain a full member of the European Union. The free movement of goods, services, capital and people between Britain and the Continent should remain unchanged until at least mid-2018. Any agreements between London and Brussels will then have to be ratified by EU member states as well as the EU and British parliaments, which could further delay the exit process. And by the time London and Brussels have reached a deal, the Continental bloc will look very different from how it looks today.
