ASSESSMENTS

How China Will Handle Its Trade War With the United States in 2019

Nov 14, 2018 | 22:50 GMT

An employee works in a textile factory in Xiayi county in Shangqiu in China's central Henan province.

An employee works in a textile factory in Xiayi county in Shangqiu in China's central Henan province. China is mulling its options in its trade war against the United States.

(STR/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Beijing will deepen its public sector reform by opening space for foreign capital in sectors such as financial, auto and energy and attempting to ease restrictions in sectors in line with its interests.
  • The threat of supply chain disruption from the U.S.-China trade war will increase Beijing's desire to support the development of its tech sector, limiting progress in trade talks and increasing the likelihood that disputes will continue into 2019.
  • Beijing will seek to diversify its export market while deepening trade and tech cooperation with major powers in order to prevent U.S. supply chain disruptions and collective international attempts to isolate China.

China and the United States are and will remain divided on crucial ideologies for decades to come, meaning their economic war and competition for tech dominance is set to last a very long time. China increasingly recognizes that economic attacks are only one component of the United States' long-term plan to contain Beijing's rise, while the Chinese government harbors no illusions that it can end the current trade war easily – or without major concessions that could outweigh the cost of the trade war. But between U.S. demands to widen market access and stagnating reforms at home, Beijing also has a long-term imperative to enhance its domestic competitiveness, further open its economy and present itself as a guarantor of free trade at a time of growing global unilateralism and protectionism. Beyond this, in 2019, Beijing will seek to diversify its export market while advancing trade and tech cooperation with major...

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