ASSESSMENTS

How Generational Trends Could Complicate the U.S.-Israeli Relationship

Mar 27, 2019 | 14:14 GMT

This photo shows U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo addresing the annual American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference in March 2019. The effects of shifting demographics both in the United States and Israel could make their relationship more volatile in the future.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) conference on March 25, 2019, in Washington, D.C.

(MARK WILSON/Getty Images)

Highlights

Demographic changes in both the United States and Israel are creating a political dynamic that will cause the allies to disagree more often over major aspects of their regional strategies, including Iran and the Palestinian Territories.
That will inject volatility into their future relationship and put Israel into a position where it must consider new backup partners to supplement times of waning U.S. support.
U.S. pressure on Israel to fit into its own regional strategy will strain Israel's political system, potentially radicalizing Israelis and further empowering its nationalist-religious voters.

Since the Cold War, bipartisan political support for Israel in the United States has remained strong enough to influence U.S. strategy in the Middle East. Often, U.S. officials who wanted to take action in the region running counter to Israeli interests found themselves having to weigh their decision against the possible electoral penalty. But political and demographic shifts underway in both the United States and Israel are changing the nature of that limitation, potentially injecting a measure of volatility into their relationship that will often be defined by the political party in power in Washington....

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