As the European Union continues to fracture, debates in Germany could change Berlin's domestic and foreign policies, reshaping the entire Continent in the process. A group of conservative politicians is questioning German Chancellor Angela Merkel's ability to address the immigration crisis, with some even threatening to launch a no-confidence vote against her. Merkel will probably survive these attacks, but this is the second rebellion against her leadership in less than a year.
Regardless of whether Merkel keeps her job, German conservatives are, and will continue to be, concerned about the rise of anti-establishment and anti-immigration groups in the country. Even if these emerging forces are still far from accessing power, they will influence mainstream parties. In addition, future challenges such as the integration of asylum seekers into the labor force and the economic impact of the downturn in emerging markets will create fertile ground for anti-establishment sentiments to prevail. If Germany takes a more isolationist stance on EU issues, Europe will only further fragment.
At this point, dissent among German conservatives is still within tolerable margins. German media reported that 44 lawmakers from the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), sent a letter to Merkel on Jan. 19 asking her to enhance border controls and limit the arrival of migrants. The rebellion is smaller than the one Merkel faced last year, when some 60 lawmakers voted against Greece's third bailout program.
Merkel has several factors on her side, the most important of which is that her party is not ready to replace her. To replace a chancellor, lawmakers need enough votes to appoint a successor. But should the CDU and CSU try to oust Merkel, their coalition partners in the Social Democratic Party (SPD) would probably leave the government and trigger new elections.
At the heart of Germany's political problems are the concerns of a growing number of voters worried about different aspects of EU integration. These fears are affecting German politicians, who are adapting their strategies to represent — and in some cases, to shape — voter expectations. These sentiments will evolve and become critical for the future of the European Union in the coming months as Germany prepares to elect a new government in 2017.
