ASSESSMENTS

How 3 Key Allies Will Respond to U.S. Demands on Troop Deployments

Nov 22, 2019 | 11:00 GMT

This photo shows U.S. soldiers standing guard in the Korean border village of Panmunjom, located inside the Demilitarized Zone separating South and North Korea, on April 18, 2018.

U.S. soldiers stand guard in the Korean border village of Panmunjom, located inside the Demilitarized Zone separating South and North Korea, on April 18, 2018.

(CHUNG SUNG-JUN/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Seoul finds itself in a weak position to resist U.S. demands for more money to base troops in South Korea, but the demands will spur its efforts to reduce its dependence on the U.S. military.
  • Japan will try to bargain Washington's asking price down, but its significant wealth and need for close alignment with the United States mean it will reach a deal. 
  • Germany's relatively secure, by contrast, and the fact that U.S. troops would likely depart for neighboring Poland, and still shield Germany from Russia, means a complete drawdown of U.S. forces is more likely there.

U.S. demands for huge payment increases from three of its major allies, South Korea, Japan and Germany, for basing military forces on their territory could cause significant shifts in the global U.S. military footprint. The centrality of the United States and its military to South Korea's and Japan's security strategies means Washington is in a strong position to extract more money. But the effort could push Germany further away from the United States....

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