Bolivian President Evo Morales is not even a year into his third term but already appears to be considering a fourth. The president won a third term in October 2014 with 61 percent of the popular vote. His approval ratings have stayed high largely because of steady economic growth thanks to rising natural gas exports to Brazil and Argentina, not to mention high social spending and a scattered political opposition movement. Now, with the help of his supporters, the president is trying to secure another term in office while his approval ratings are still high.
Another Morales term would mean at least five more years of a risky climate for foreign investors. Morales has not shied away from expropriating foreign assets, such as in disputes between local labor and foreign firms. And with high approval ratings and nearly half of Bolivia's export revenue coming from secure natural gas contracts with neighboring Brazil and Argentina, Morales can afford to risk antagonizing foreign investors.
If Morales chooses to begin preparing for another campaign after December, he will be well positioned to pass the requisite legislation. His approval ratings are high enough and the economy is growing well enough that public support should not be a concern at the moment. Declines in oil prices will eventually reduce Bolivia's export revenue, but it is unlikely to set off the kind of economic crisis that would cost Morales significant popular backing anytime soon. The country's political opposition, which draws most of its support from Bolivia's eastern lowlands, will probably oppose the initiative, and Morales' bid for another term could spark future political unrest. But for now, the decision to try to remain at the helm of Bolivia for another five years belongs only to Morales himself.
