The IMF Foresees Trouble for the GCC's Oil-Heavy Economies

Feb 7, 2020 | 21:37 GMT

The International Monetary Fund on Feb. 6 released the results of its study of the fiscal sustainability of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which do not bode well for the region in the 2030s. The study concluded that at their current fiscal stance, the GCC as a region would see its fiscal wealth turn negative in 2034 under a baseline real oil price scenario of $55 per barrel. Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia are the three countries with the most exposure to oil price difficulties. In the study's baseline oil scenario, the debts of Bahrain's government would outstrip its assets in roughly the next five years, Oman would reach roughly the same point within a decade and Saudi Arabia would turn negative in roughly the next 15 years. With the GCC's strongest financial position, Kuwait would meanwhile not hit the negative wealth threshold until the 2050s under the same study...

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