Implications of an Expanded Turkish Role in Syria

Conflicting reports out of Turkey suggest that Turkish authorities may have entered Syria on Aug. 20 to distribute humanitarian aid. Citing Turkey's Anatolia news agency, AFP reported that Turkish authorities handed out baby food, sleeping bags and supplies to Syrians just across the border from the southern Turkish town of Reyhanli in Hatay province.

Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who has received heightened criticism recently for his leadership of Turkey's foreign policy, told Turkish daily Hurriyet that Turkey could not accept more than 100,000 Syrian refugees. Instead, Davutoglu said, Ankara would "welcome them in Syrian territory" under the auspices of the United Nations. The Turkish government said it would participate in a ministerial-level meeting at the United Nations on Aug. 30 to address the refugee issue. There are already a reported 70,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey.

Ankara has for weeks been preparing the public for an expanded Turkish role in Syria. It views the neighboring conflict with increasing urgency and has been under pressure from the United States to accelerate the transition. It is not clear exactly what the Turkish government is doing in Syria, but its operating there — even in the no-man's-land between the two borders and under the guise of handing out aid — could mark a significant expansion of Turkish involvement. It could also trigger a backlash from Syria and Iran, while potentially improving Turkish-Israeli ties.