ASSESSMENTS

The Implications of a Syria-Israel De-Escalation Agreement

Sep 26, 2025 | 16:29 GMT

Israeli military vehicles drive along a border fence, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025.
Israeli military vehicles drive along a border fence, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025.

(JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

Syria and Israel will likely ink a security pact to ease border tensions by the end of the year, but the deal's likely narrow scope and other unresolved disputes will keep it fragile and at elevated risk of collapse in the months ahead. In recent days, U.S. officials have signaled that Syria and Israel are finalizing a pact to de-escalate their border tensions, with special U.S. envoy to Syria Tom Barrack noting on Sept. 24 that both sides were ''closing in'' on an agreement to restrict Syria's stationing of heavy weapons near the border in exchange for Israel halting attacks on Syria. Barrack's comment came shortly after Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa's high-profile meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New York on Sept. 23, where the two discussed counterterrorism cooperation and progress in security talks with Israel. On Sept. 18, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani traveled to Washington...

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