Assessments

Islamabad has turned to tactical nuclear weapons to deter a potential invasion.

Although it is a nuclear power, India does not operate or plan to develop tactical nuclear weapons. India also maintains a no first use nuclear policy. Pakistan is calculating that tactical nuclear weapons would essentially counter India's conventional military superiority. By using low-yield tactical nuclear weapons on India's armored spearheads within its own territory, Islamabad hopes to deter or defeat India's Cold Start armored thrusts without breaching India's no first use nuclear policy and risking a wider escalation into a strategic nuclear exchange that might include non-military targets such as cities.

In the India-Pakistan Conflict, the Stakes Are Higher Than Ever

Highlights

India

Pakistan

Military & Security

Ever since India adopted a proactive military strategy toward Pakistan in 2004, Islamabad has felt increasingly threatened and has sought to rely more on its nuclear arsenal as a counter. These developments have elevated the stakes in the Indian subcontinent. Although political constraints to nuclear conflict are strong for both New Delhi and Islamabad, the evolution in doctrine and force posture by both sides has lowered the barrier for a nuclear conflict. For instance, on Oct. 19, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry officially confirmed Islamabad's plans to use low-yield nuclear weapons to forestall the advance of Indian troops under New Delhi's "Cold Start" doctrine.

ASSESSMENTS

In the India-Pakistan Conflict, the Stakes Are Higher Than Ever

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