ASSESSMENTS

India, Pakistan: The Dynamics of Conflict

Dec 3, 2008 | 17:27 GMT

TAUSEEF MUSTAFA/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Judging from the manner in which India is building a case for military action against Islamist militant facilities in Pakistan in response to the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai, it is likely that the Indians will exercise their option to use force. If and when that happens, it is likely to begin with artillery fire and airstrikes against militant camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Given that this is a red line for the Pakistanis, Islamabad is likely to respond, and the resulting situation could easily create a bigger security problem for India.

If New Delhi were to use force against Islamist militant facilities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, it likely would trigger a response from Islamabad and exacerbate the Islamist militant threat to India. <em>(With Stratfor map)</em>...

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