The combination of funding, acquisition and industrial problems are clouding what should be a bright defense outlook for India — with real-world consequences for the structure of its military force. For instance, the air force has a standing requirement for 42 squadrons each comprising about 18 combat aircraft, but it currently has fewer than 33 such squadrons. This number is expected to shrink to 22 by 2032. The declining number of combat aircraft is being driven by two factors. The first is the age of the fleet, with a high number of combat aircraft, including the MiG-21 and MiG-27, due to be retired in upcoming years. The second stems from the laborious process of procuring replacement aircraft. The 2001 tender for the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA), for instance, was originally intended to yield 126 fighter aircraft. By 2016, however, only 36 French Rafale jets had been ordered.
Procurement problems have also extended to the availability of spare parts. India's premier combat aircraft, the Su-30MKI, continues to suffer low serviceability rate — the share of the fleet available at any particular time — largely because of shortages of spare parts. The Indian air force has only recently managed to boost Su-30MKI readiness from 46 percent to around 63 percent. The military hopes that a prospective agreement with Russia facilitating production of spares in India will enable it to reach its serviceability rate goal of 75 percent in the coming years.
And the limitations of the Indian domestic arms industry are perhaps best highlighted by the effort to develop the Tejas light combat aircraft, a priority for an Indian military. The aircraft, developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., is already decades behind schedule and still not fully developed. Moreover, despite a significant effort to maximize indigenous components on the fighter, the key combat systems of the aircraft are of foreign origin. These include a U.S.-made engine, a Russian gun, an Israeli radar and a British ejection seat. Such obstacles will continue to hamper the future of Indian military modernization as it progresses through its period of growth and transition.
